Thursday, May 7, 2015

2015 Hurricane Season Forecast

Meteorologists have published initial forecasts in which they suggest that the 2015 hurricane season here in Florida will be relatively quiet, following last year’s trend. Colorado State professors Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray outline in a document released on April 9th that the “2015 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be one of the least active since the middle of the 20th century”, though they expect that an “El Nino of moderate strength” may develop this summer or fall.  The professors attribute this calm to cool sea-state temperatures in the tropical and subtropical western Atlantic where hurricanes form. 

Dr. Klotzbach and Dr. Gray have compiled annual hurricane records over the last 29 years, allowing them to produce annual averages based on weather conditions.  They estimate that 2015 will have only 7 named storms (median is 12.0), 3 hurricanes (median is 6.5), and 1 major hurricane (median is 2.0).  Last years’ record was 9 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.  The forecast also calls for a below-average chance of a major hurricane making landfall: an estimated 15% chance along the East Coast (average is 30%), an estimated 15% chance along the Gulf Coast (average is 30%), and an estimated 22% chance in the Caribbean (average is 42%).

 Dr. Klotzback and Dr. Gray remind readers that “Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted”.

For more information on preparing your boat for a hurricane, review the links below:

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